How Long Can Japan Play The Endgame?

A very excellent article on Japan’s dire economic situation.

Unlike typhoons, which come and go, the Japanese quagmire has been getting deeper and ever more perilous, but all predictions of a financial cataclysm have been premature. So far.

In fact, every time I return to Tokyo, I am amazed by how much the city has changed. Clusters of high-rise buildings have replaced run-down city blocks. They come with new streets and immaculate metro stations. Train lines have been added, others have been extended. When a crack appears in a street, they repave the street, and they do it in a labor-intensive way with too many workers watching respectfully what the few are doing. The workers aren’t low-wage immigrants but Japanese in intriguing uniforms. The healthcare system is universal. Pensions for those who retired some years ago are adequate…. But there is an issue.

Debt. Gigantic amounts. Gross national debt has reached 230% of GDP, by far the highest in the developed world. By comparison, tottering Greece just breeched 150% and the U.S. 100%. Japan’s catastrophic level of indebtedness has been made possible by factors that are unique to Japan, but some of them have begun to reverse, and the endgame has started.

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